Bangladesh Crisis 2024: Sheikh Hasina’s Ouster and Its Implications for India

How Sheikh Hasina’s Departure Reshapes Regional Politics, Security, and Economic Ties Between India and Bangladesh

23 September 2024 by

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On August 5, 2024, Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, was ousted from power in a sudden and unprecedented turn of events. This marked the end of her 15-year-long rule, which began in January 2009. What initially started as a student-led protest quickly snowballed into a nationwide crisis, forcing her to flee the country and seek temporary refuge in India. This dramatic escalation raises numerous questions about the root causes of the crisis and how it unfolded so rapidly. However, the key issue for India now is understanding the far-reaching implications of these events on its diplomatic, economic, and security interests.

A Brief History of Bangladesh

Bangladesh, which was once part of Pakistan, gained independence in 1971 after a bloody struggle for autonomy, primarily driven by East Pakistan's disenfranchisement. Although East and West Pakistan were part of the same country following the partition of British India in 1947, their geographic separation by over 1,000 miles created significant cultural and political divides. East Pakistan, which had a larger population, was often politically marginalized and economically neglected by the central government in West Pakistan, further fueling dissatisfaction.

The political landscape shifted dramatically in 1970 when Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, leader of the Awami League, won a landslide victory in national elections. However, the ruling establishment in West Pakistan refused to accept this result, leading to widespread protests in East Pakistan, which were met with brutal military crackdowns. These events sparked the Bangladesh Liberation War, and millions of refugees fled to India. Under the leadership of then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, India intervened, culminating in Bangladesh's independence on December 16, 1971. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman became the country's first Prime Minister, but his rule was cut short when he was assassinated in 1975 during a military coup.

Sheikh Hasina: From Tragedy to Political Prominence

Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, began her political career following the tragic assassination of her father and much of her family in 1975. Having lived in exile for several years, she returned to Bangladesh in 1981 and took leadership of the Awami League, her father's party. Her political journey was marked by resistance to military rule and autocratic governance, particularly under President Ziaur Rahman. This propelled her into prominence as a leader of the opposition.

Hasina first became Prime Minister in 1996, making history as Bangladesh's first female head of government. Although she lost the 2001 elections to a coalition led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), she returned to power in 2009 after winning the 2008 general elections. Her government was re-elected in 2014 and again in 2018, making her one of the longest-serving leaders in the country’s history. However, her final term, beginning in 2018, was marred by allegations of increasing authoritarianism, suppression of dissent, and controversial election processes.

Unfolding the Crisis in Bangladesh

The seeds of the current crisis were planted much earlier, with growing discontent over issues such as unemployment, rising inflation, and economic disparity. The immediate trigger, however, was a protest by students demanding government jobs based on merit rather than quotas. The quota system, which favored the descendants of freedom fighters from Bangladesh’s liberation war, had long been a source of tension. While initially peaceful, the protests soon spiraled into violent clashes between protesters and the police, leaving over 130 people dead.

The timing of these protests was critical. Sheikh Hasina had just secured a controversial fourth term in office in January 2024, a result boycotted by opposition parties who alleged widespread voter suppression. The economic crisis, exacerbated by the global impacts of COVID-19, corruption, inflation, and lack of jobs, had created fertile ground for unrest. Hasina’s government was widely criticized for mishandling the protests, especially after she referred to the students as "Razakars" (a term for collaborators with Pakistan during the 1971 war). The government's heavy-handed crackdown only inflamed public anger, leading to mass uprisings.

In the face of mounting pressure, Sheikh Hasina fled Dhaka with her sister as protesters stormed her official residence. She sought temporary refuge in India, an event that was confirmed by External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar, who addressed the Rajya Sabha, stating that she had requested asylum at very short notice.

The Implications for India: A Multifaceted Challenge

Sheikh Hasina’s ousting has profound implications for India, which now finds itself navigating a delicate and complex situation in its neighborhood. Here are some of the key challenges:

1. Losing a Trusted Ally

Under Sheikh Hasina’s leadership, India and Bangladesh shared a robust relationship. Her government was a strong partner in combating terrorism and maintaining regional stability. The close cooperation extended to the economic sphere as well, with Bangladesh emerging as India's largest trading partner in South Asia. The bilateral trade reached a staggering USD 13 billion under Hasina’s tenure, bolstered by the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) and other trade pacts.

With her resignation and the uncertainty surrounding Bangladesh’s political future, India faces the risk of losing a key ally in the region. The new administration may not be as friendly toward India, which could have significant repercussions for trade, security, and regional cooperation.

2. Diplomatic Tightrope with the West

Sheikh Hasina’s increasing authoritarianism had drawn criticism from Western nations, particularly the United States, for alleged human rights abuses and the suppression of democratic freedoms. India, which had maintained close ties with her government, now faces the challenge of balancing its relationship with Bangladesh while managing the expectations of its Western allies. The optics of India granting refuge to a leader criticized for authoritarian tendencies may complicate its diplomatic relations with these powers.

3. Risk of Anti-India Sentiment

Hasina’s unpopularity in Bangladesh and her flight to India risk fostering anti-Indian sentiment among the Bangladeshi public. In times of political upheaval, public perceptions often blur the lines between a leader and the country that supports them. This could strain people-to-people relations, making it difficult for India to maintain goodwill with Bangladesh’s population and jeopardizing the gains made in bilateral relations over the past decade.

4. Security Challenges on the Border

India shares a porous 4,096.7 km-long border with Bangladesh, making it vulnerable to infiltration, smuggling, and illegal migration. With the political instability in Bangladesh, the risk of increased migration into India’s northeastern states looms large. Infiltration by radical elements and the potential rise of extremism could also threaten India’s internal security.

In response to these concerns, the Indian government has established a high-level committee to monitor developments along the border, with a focus on safeguarding Indian citizens and minority communities in Bangladesh. However, managing such a vast and porous border remains a daunting task.

5. China’s Opportunism

China has long sought to expand its influence in South Asia, and Bangladesh’s political crisis presents a potential opportunity for Beijing. Under Sheikh Hasina, Dhaka skillfully balanced its relationships with both India and China. However, with a new government potentially taking charge, China may intensify its efforts to gain a stronger foothold in Bangladesh, as it has done in other South Asian countries like Sri Lanka and the Maldives. India must remain vigilant to counter any geopolitical maneuvers by China that could undermine its strategic interests in the region.

6. Minority Concerns

There are growing fears for the safety of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority in the wake of Sheikh Hasina’s resignation. Reports suggest that attacks on Hindus have increased since her departure, with violence erupting in several districts. While the interim government has promised to take swift action against the perpetrators, the situation remains tense. India must keep a close eye on the humanitarian aspect of the crisis and may need to intervene diplomatically to ensure the protection of minority communities in Bangladesh.

7. Transboundary River Management

India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers, and disputes over water-sharing have long been a thorn in their relationship. Although key agreements like the Ganga Waters Treaty (1996) and the Kushiyara River Treaty (2022) have helped mitigate tensions, unresolved issues—particularly over the Teesta River—remain a significant challenge. With political instability in Bangladesh, negotiations over water-sharing may be delayed, exacerbating tensions between the two neighbors.

8. Uncertainty for Indian Investments

Bangladesh’s political unrest poses significant risks to Indian businesses, especially in the textile industry, where Indian companies own a substantial share of production units. Trade disruptions, delayed payments, and potential instability in labor markets could compel Indian businesses to reconsider their investments in Bangladesh. Additionally, the ongoing talks over a potential free trade agreement (FTA) between India and Bangladesh, which had promised to boost bilateral commerce, may now be jeopardized by the crisis.

9. Disruptions to Infrastructure and Connectivity Projects

India has invested heavily in infrastructure projects in Bangladesh to improve connectivity between the two countries, particularly in enhancing access to India’s northeastern states. These projects, including the Khulna-Mongla Port rail line and the Akhaura-Agartala rail link, are vital for boosting trade and regional cooperation. However, political instability in Bangladesh could disrupt these projects, delaying progress and potentially jeopardizing India’s long-term strategic interests in the region.

The Road Ahead: Navigating the Crisis

India faces a difficult road ahead as it navigates the challenges posed by the Bangladesh crisis. Maintaining stability in its neighborhood is crucial, both for regional security and for India’s broader geopolitical ambitions. As C. Raja Mohan aptly puts it, “India’s destiny is intricately tied to its neighbors.” India must now employ a multi-faceted approach, combining diplomacy, security, and economic strategies to ensure that it continues to play a constructive role in Bangladesh’s political transition, while safeguarding its own national interests.

In the short term, India must work closely with Bangladesh’s interim government to maintain peace and security in the region. The long-term goal should be to promote a democratic and inclusive political process in Bangladesh, which not only ensures the welfare of its people but also fosters regional cooperation and stability.

India’s future relationship with Bangladesh will depend on how effectively it manages the current crisis.

References

1. Bangladesh Liberation War and its aftermath:

Bose, Sarmila. Dead Reckoning: Memories of the 1971 Bangladesh War. Columbia University Press, 2011.
United States Department of State. "Foreign Relations, 1969–1976, Volume XI, South Asia Crisis, 1971."
Bangladesh's Struggle for Independence

2. Sheikh Hasina’s Political Journey:

Burke, Jason. “Sheikh Hasina's Complex Legacy in Bangladesh.” The Guardian, 2020.
Fair, C. Christine. Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army's Way of War. Oxford University Press, 2014.
Profile of Sheikh Hasina

3. Student Protests and Their Impact on the Crisis:

4. India-Bangladesh Relations:

Ministry of External Affairs - India-Bangladesh Relations
Basu, Paroma. “Economic Ties Between India and Bangladesh.” The Diplomat, 2021.

5. Security Concerns at the India-Bangladesh Border:

Brookings Institution - India’s Border Management Challenges
“India Strengthens Border Security Amidst Bangladesh Crisis.” Hindustan Times, August 2024.

6. China's Role in South Asia:

Chellaney, Brahma. “China’s Expanding Influence in South Asia.” The Economic Times, 2022.
Carnegie India - China and Bangladesh Relations

7. Transboundary Water Management:

Observer Research Foundation - Water Disputes Between India and Bangladesh
Rahman, Md Saifullah. Teesta River Dispute: A Case Study in India-Bangladesh Relations. 2022.

8. Human Rights and Sheikh Hasina’s Leadership:

Human Rights Watch - Bangladesh Under Sheikh Hasina
"Bangladesh Politics and Human Rights: A Report on Sheikh Hasina's Governance." The Economist, 2024.

9. The Rise and Fall of Ousted Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina: